Burson-Marsteller China's Government Relations & Public Policy Consulting group would like to thank you for your interest and feedback as we covered the developments of lianghui, the annual meeting of China's parliament, on Weibo, Twitter and Facebook. We hope it was an interesting and useful supplement as you followed news coverage of the conferences.
Today, we would like to share our executive summary of lianghui to give you a snapshot of what was discussed and how it might affect your business.
For a more comprehensive picture, Striving for Progress While Maintaining Stability, Burson-Marsteller China's in-depth analysis report, is also available on Slideshare.
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The 2012 National People Congress (NPC) has just concluded and from the speeches and comments delivered during the session and media interviews, a defining theme has emerged as China heads into government transition in October this year.
2012 National People's Congress Executive Summary Report
"Making Progress while Maintaining Stability” was the theme of the NPC, but the emphasis was on stability over progress, in contrast to years past. With China’s once-a-decade leadership change happening this autumn, stability was and will continue to be the predominant concern of the government well into 2013. The result will most likely be a more conservative and cautious approach to decisions and policy changes.
China cut its GDP growth target to 7.5 percent. This is the first time for China’s GDP target to fall below eight percent since 2004. It was interpreted by the Government Work Report as a decision to focus on quality rather than speed, an approach that requires the acceptance of a slower-growing economy.
A high priority of the government’s work is to improve the well-being of China’s citizens, and this was a constant topic at the NPC. Improving healthcare, food safety and job creation received noticeable attention. Reform of the universal healthcare system and expansion of basic medical insurance coverage led healthcare topics at the NPC. The government made clear their determination to intensify supervision of the food industry, with dairy products, drinks, meat products, food additives and organic food on the top of the government’s watch list. Noticeable attention was also given to job creation and its link to increased domestic consumption. As China’s economy moves up the value chain, the government is focused on achieving economic stability through a strong and growing middle-class whose jobs are focused more on the domestic market rather than exports.
A second topic that will play a large role in the maintenance of a stable economy and society is the continuance of economic and political reforms. While State-owned Enterprises (SOE) will remain the mainstay of China’s economy, the NPC noted and focused attention on improving the condition of the private sector. The government has called for the opening up of monopolies, even those held by SOEs, and pledged support for innovation-oriented industries. On the topic of political reform, the NPC emphasized the need for government to be more responsive to society. Premier Wen Jiabao was widely quoted for his comment, "Without political restructuring, economic restructuring will not succeed and the achievements we have made in economic restructuring may be lost."
Lastly, the focus on quality over quantity ran parallel and in support of the stability focus throughout the NPC. This applies to every aspect of society in China, from government, to industrial policy, to the well-being of China’s citizens. Projects and actions will not only be evaluated for their contributions to China’s economic growth, but also for their ability to improve the quality of government efforts in healthcare, job creation, domestic demand, energy conservation and environmental protection.
As multinationals and domestic firms evaluate the pronouncements from the NPC and await policies and circulars, Burson-Marsteller China recommends reviewing business strategies to identify projects and actions that will resonate with the government’s objectives of stability and quality. While we do not advocate nor believe the tenor of conversations at the NPC will result in radical policy changes, what we do believe is it would be in the best interests of firms to identify those strategies, projects and actions that support the government’s stability and quality objectives and effectively deliver those messages to government, industry, consumers and employees.
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承前启后 稳中求进——2012全国人民代表大会分析报告》概要
2012年的全国人民代表大会刚刚落幕，此次大会发布的《政府工作报告》等一系列政策文件、各方评论和媒体报道都传达出一个明确的主题——“稳中求进”。
今年是中国最高领导人的换届之年，因此不同于以往，今年“稳”的重要性明显高于“进”，而“稳定”作为主题词也将一直延续到2013年。在此大背景下，中国政府的政治决定和政策变化将可能倾向更加保守和审慎。
今年，中国政府将国内生产总值增速下调至7.5%。这是中国自2004年以来首次将这一目标设置在8%以下。正如《政府工作报告》中强调，这一变化的主要目的是为了引导各级政府和各行各业将工作重点转移到加快推进经济发展方式转变和经济结构调整上来，更加注重发展质量——适当降低经济增速则是这个战略调整的内在要求。
改善民生依旧是各级政府的工作重点——推进医药卫生事业改革发展、加强食品安全和扩大就业都是重中之重。其中，健全全民医保体系和巩固扩大基本医保覆盖面是医改的核心关注。同时，政府坚定了加强食品安全监管的决心：奶制品、饮品、肉制品、食品添加剂和有机食品被列为政府监管的首要目标对象。报告还特别强调了扩大就业及其对拉动内需的关键作用。随着中国主动放缓经济增长，力推经济结构调整和产业升级，政府将依靠不断壮大的中产阶层来做大内需，稳定发展。继续推进政治经济改革是“稳中求进”的另一个重要方面。虽然公有制经济依然是中国经济的主体，但此次会议着重强调了要改善非公经济，特别是私营部门的发展境况。政府已经提出在若干关键性领域打破垄断，放宽准入，并承诺为自主创新型企业提供具体的政策支持。在政治改革方面，此次会议强调了进一步推进政府改革和政府职能转变的必要性和重要性，比如被反复提及的温家宝总理的论述：“没有政治体制改革的成功，经济体制改革不可能进行到底，已经取得的成果还有可能得而复失”。
此外，今年的会议把发展的质量和效益问题提到了一个更高的位置，关注的重点更是涵盖了中国社会经济生活的方方面面，从政府工作到行业政策，从经济发展到民计民生。与此相适应，政府在制定后续具体工作和项目的过程中，不仅会考虑对经济的贡献率，也将更多考虑其在改进医疗、推动就业、扩大内需、节能环保等众多领域的能力和作用。
我们建议跨国公司和国内企业在研究《政府工作报告》、进一步等待具体政策和措施出台的同时，根据“稳增长”、“促平衡”和“重质量”的工作重心，探寻机遇，增进合作。尽管我们认为此次人大会议不会带来重大的政策变化，但我们相信，制定并执行契合政策目标的企业战略和具体项目，并且通过有效的途径向政府、行业、消费者和员工等利益攸关方传递正确的信息，将符合各国企业在中国市场实现长远发展的最大化利益。
The 2012 China’s National People's Congress (NPC) and Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC), or lianghui (the two sessions) concluded on March 14. This is the final year of the current leadership under President Hu Jintao and Premier Wen Jiabao. While many people are preoccupied looking for indications of who will move to the top later this year, the policies and plans approved by the NPC deserve our attention as well. These provide an understanding of the government’s overall direction and specific goals for this year and the years ahead. These trends will be of particular importance to the continued success of companies operating in and with interests in China – both foreign and domestic.
Ensuring a smooth leadership transition is the highest priority for 2012, and this has implications for both economic and social policy. The theme from last year’s Central Economic Conference (CEC) “Making progress while maintaining stability” was carried over to lianghui, setting the tone for this year’s development priorities and tasks, and many policies and initiatives adopted in Premier Wen’s Government Work Report were inherited from the CEC as well. The forthcoming change in leadership is not expected to significantly change China’s policy environment, and President Hu and Premier Wen are determined to see their priorities continued by the new government.
One of the most stunning developments at lianghui was the reduction of China’s gross domestic product (GDP) growth target to only 7.5 percent, the first time it has fallen below eight percent since 2004. In 2011, China’s GDP increased 9.2 percent year-on-year, well exceeding the targeted 8 percent. No one doubts China’s ability to grow its GDP by 7.5 percent the end of this year. As Premier Wen said at his last press conference, slower growth is in line with the targets in the 12th Five-Year Plan and the purpose of this decision is to guide the government at both the central and local levels. The priority will be restructuring the economy so it is based on ideas & knowledge and driven by innovation, rather than depending on the consumption of natural resources and low-cost labor, which often leads to environmental degradation.
Going forward, economic development focus on quality over quantity to ensure China’s economy develops in a stable and sustainable way that benefits more people. In 2012, domestic economic issues are on the top of China’s economic agenda, including expanding domestic consumption, improving social well-being and boosting the real economy. "In the face of the deepening international financial crisis and the European debt crisis, what is most important is that we handle our own affairs well," said Premier Wen at his closing press conference, another indication that China’s future economic policies will look inward and more investment and resources will target domestic development.
For the government, moving industry in China up the value chain, particularly strategic emerging industries like high-end equipment, IT and renewable energy, is an urgent task today and will continue to be a long-term objective for years to come. China aspires to create its own ‘Apple’ in these sectors to realize its goal of being a world innovator. Foreign businesses will be challenged by emerging Chinese “national champions”, however, thanks to the distinctive advantages multinational corporations possess in knowledge, technology and experience, foreign participation will be encouraged by the Chinese government. To minimize challenges and maximize opportunities, foreign companies may consider securing more local ventures or partners.
The Chinese government’s role and policy priorities have evolved along with China’s opening up and reform over the past 30 years. As China moves up the value chain and develops indigenous innovation, it is becoming increasingly selective in how it utilizes foreign investment, placing greater emphasis on high-quality intangibles. MNCs need to listen to their government stakeholders and make necessary and timely adjustments to their business strategies. This includes first understanding the current perceptions and agendas of their stakeholders and then building a platform for consistent and effective communication with them.
2012年的“两会”刚刚结束，这是“胡温政府”最后一次作为国家元首领导的两会，也是“十二五规划”实施关键之年的两会，因而引起了中外各界的广泛关注。中国的政治经济决策往往让人感到遥远而神秘，因此，涉及到中国政治经济社会发展方方面面的“两会”被看作是一个难得的、让我们了解中国未来一年甚至几年发展的总体方向和具体指标的“窗口”。对于众多希望在中国寻求更大发展的跨国公司，这同样是一个难得的机会。
无论从经济角度还是从社会角度，确保中国政治最高权力的平稳和成功交替都是2012年最重要的目标。因此，今年两会的总基调便是“稳中求进”，提出的主要政策和工作任务基本延续了去年年底召开的中央经济工作会议的思路和主张。尽管即将到来的中央领导层变更在很大程度上并不会改变中国的基本政策环境和走向，但“胡温政府”依旧会不遗余力地确保其政策遗产能够在下一代领导人当中得到继承和发展。
今年“两会”报告中最受瞩目的变化、也是学界和媒体谈论最多的话题，就是中国将GDP增长目标调低至7.5%，8年来首次设置在8%以下。2011中国GDP增长9.2%, 远远超过了8%的预设目标。我相信，没有人会怀疑中国今年的经济增速仍会大大超过7.5%的目标。但是，正如温家宝总理在记者见面会上反复强调的，中国主动调低增速是为了与“十二五”规划的总体目标保持一致，引导各级政府和各行各业把工作重点转移到加快推进经济发展方式转变和经济结构调整上来，使中国经济的发展摆脱过度依赖资源消耗和污染环境，走上一条以知识为基础、以创新为驱动的发展道路。
同时，中国政府也给出了强烈的信号：经济发展将更加注重质量和效益，而不再一味追求数量和速度，真正实现长期、稳定和可持续增长，并使中国经济的发展能最终惠及百姓的民生。2012年，扩大内需、改善民生、发展实体经济的重要性被反复提及。“面对国际金融危机和欧债危机的蔓延、发展，关键是把我们自己的事情办好”，温总理在记者会上作出这样的开场白，也暗示着中国将更加关注国内问题，更多的政策资源和经济资源将投向国内和实业，进一步增强经济增长的内生动力。
强调产业升级，特别是加速发展战略性新兴产业——高端装备制造、新一代信息技术、节能环保、生物医药、新能源、新能源汽车和新材料——将成为未来几年中国经济增长的“潜力股”。中国希望在以上领域培养出中国的“苹果”，实现创新强国的梦想。因此，外资企业也将在上述产业面临更多来自国内企业的激烈竞争。但鉴于跨国公司在知识、技术和管理方面的独特优势，中国政府也会继续欢迎和支持外资企业在更高的层次和更广的领域参与相关行业的发展。在机遇和挑战面前，跨国公司可以考虑重新评估其中国运营战略，寻求更多的合作者和战略伙伴。
中国的政府角色和政策侧重，伴随着中国改革开放的进程在不断演化。而随着产业结构优化升级，自主创新能力不断提高，中国对待利用外资也必然会更加具有选择性，更注重质量。这就要求跨国公司建立一个高效的、可持续的沟通平台，和政府等利益相关方进行更为密切的合作，学习和听取他们的想法与需求，传达正确的信息，并及时对公司战略进行必要调整。就像温家宝总理在记者会上所说，“今年可能是最困难的一年，但也可能是最有希望的一年”，机遇总是与挑战并存，具备识别机遇的慧眼，在任何时候，都是帮助企业拓展业务、获得更多发展的前提。
 博雅中国政府关系与公共政策咨询部总监 张建欣
"Lianghui” – the annual session of the National People's Congress (NPC) and National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC) – has triggered plenty of public discussions, online and offline, at home and abroad. How will business be affected by the policies that have come out of the sessions? Burson-Marsteller China’s Government Relations and Public Policy Team shares some initial thoughts.
Quality – What you do and what you don’t: GDP is targeted to grow by 7.5 percent. This is the first time in eight years that the government has set the target lower than the 8 percent considered the minimum for maintaining employment levels and economic development. However, the government seems to be targeting "quality” over the “quantity” for long-term GDP growth. This direction was reflected in Premier Wen’s Government Work Report. For example, he specifically mentioned “…putting an end to blind expansion in industries such as solar energy and wind power”. Transforming the development model, adjusting the economic structure and controlling inflation are also key phrases heard at these sessions.
"Be selective with what you do and what you don’t”, or in Chinese "有所为而有所不为". Certainly, the Central government is sending a strong signal to both local governments and various industries, and this will also color the government’s attitude towards foreign investment in China. The recent refusal by the Chinese government to allow major investors to put serious money to work in China is a good example. Focusing on higher-quality investment is in the interest of both Chinese and foreign investors, and MNCs should now, more than ever, take an even more cautious approach to where and how they invest.
Opportunities – Wellbeing, innovation and the real economy: Some paths are being closed and new ones are being opened. The Government Work Report says the Chinese government will encourage nongovernmental investment in railways, public utilities, finance, energy, telecommunications, education, and medical care. It will also encourage more foreign investment in advanced manufacturing, new and high technologies, energy conservation, environmental protection, new service industries, and the central and western regions.
All these areas contain some key words: wellbeing, innovation and the real economy. And it also comes down to the priorities of the government: expanding domestic demand and building a knowledge-based economy. All these agendas seem to be more urgent than ever against the backdrop of sluggish external demand caused by the global economic slowdown. MNCs should evaluate these opportunities carefully and balance them with the push for higher quality. And with the Chinese government announcing more detailed policy support for small and micro businesses, opportunities may exist for MNCs willing to explore ventures with smaller-scale local businesses.
The Chinese government’s role and policy priorities have been evolving along with China’s opening up and reform in the past over 30 years. China still welcomes capital, but a greater focus is now being placed on qualitative intangibles. MNCs must listen to their government stakeholders and make the necessary adjustments to their business strategies. Investing in understanding perceptions and agendas of relevant stakeholders is important, and it is equally important to have an ongoing platform on which to communicate the right messages. There are no shortcuts for MNCs anymore, and this will not change with China's forthcoming leadership transition.
从20年前“姓资姓社”的争论，到2009年“外资企业已成为国民经济的重要组成部分”的定调,外资占中国经济比重不断上升。同时，中国政府、企业与跨国公司之间的互动，也进入了更加深入和微妙的博弈过程。
跨国公司在技术、理念、管理上的先进几乎是毋庸置疑的共识，但是要把握机会，仅有优势是不够的。还需要对当前形势和发展趋势进行准确和有预见性的判断，从而找到更好发挥自身优势的途径和窗口；而且特别要注意避免因为不了解政治社会最新动态，触碰到政策的“高压线”，而成为“众矢之的”。比如去年沃尔玛的“绿色猪肉”事件，导致沃尔玛在成都的13家门店被停业半个月，便是在中国政府着手处理食品质量安全问题的当口，成为了社会和舆论的靶心。
同样在去年成为“出头鸟”的还有联合利华，因为“增强了消费者涨价预期……严重扰乱了市场秩序”被国家发展改革委会同上海市物价局处以罚款。这些在华经营多年、发展相对成熟的外资企业发生的类似事件之前并不多见，中国政府对待零售和快消外资公司一直被认为是比较友好的。暂且不论这背后是否有其他因素的考虑，至少中国民众对待长久以来被打上了“优质、先进”标签的跨国品牌，自然有更高的心理期许和价值定位。因此，未来跨国公司在中国，除了分享先进的技术管理经验之外，也要学会以更积极的姿态，增强与当地政府、消费者和媒体之间的双向沟通，主动融入到本地市场和社会的发展当中，主动承担更全面的社会责任。
当下，中国改革开放已经三十多年，外资大量进入二十年，入世十年……中国政府进行宏观调控和解决贸易摩擦的政策手段也越发成熟。2012年，即便中国经济存在下行的压力，内外部存在诸多挑战，体制环境仍需进一步完善，中国仍然是世界头号新兴市场。而此时，中国政府做出了主动调控姿态：一方面，更加注重民生，要提高中国人的收入水平，提振中国人的消费能力。另一方面，虽然政府报告对GDP增长做了放缓的预期，但反复强调这种放缓是希望“以量换质”。因此，营业额的下降，不意味着利润率下降；总量的下降，不意味着具体行业和地区的下降。在居民消费类产业、战略性新兴产业和小微型企业方面，中国政府将在2012年出台具体的相关政策来加以引导。因此，中国的市场，机会仍然很多。就像中国商务部研究院研究院王志乐在《中国改革》2012年第2期发表的文章《跨国公司于中国：艰难的磨合》提到：“摆在我们面前的任务不是如何收缩外资规模，如何限制跨国公司的作用，而是如何进一步发挥跨国公司的积极作用，使其成为中国和平发展、可持续发展以及创新发展的积极因素。”这或许可以代表部分中国政府部门对待外资的态度。
展望2012，国际局势依旧复杂多变：欧美主要大国的经济形势何时能扭转颓势，中东地区的政治局势何时能够恢复稳定仍不得而知，中国领导人换届和美国总统大选是否带来更多政治性因素，等等。中国有句古话：时势造英雄。过去20年，不少跨国公司已经踩上了中国改革开放和大力推进工业化的步点。现在，中国经济要从出口和投资占主导的经济，逐渐转向内向型、创新型经济，跨国公司能否跟上这次转变的节奏，伴随着中国经济的转型，跳出一曲新的华尔兹？
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